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Karnataka Assembly Election Explained

Picture Courtesy : The Week
Picture Courtesy: The Week

Amidst the political drama which was scripted in Delhi, HD Kumaraswamy from Janata Dal(Secular) became the 20th Chief Minister of Karnataka. With an unconditional support from Congress party, Kumaraswamy formed the government in the state while BS Yeddyurappa from Bhartiya Janata Party (BJP) resigned ahead of a trust vote in the Assembly. In this backdrop, ADR and Karnataka Election Watch (KEW) have analysed the vote share for the 222 constituencies in the Karnataka Assembly Elections, 2018.

Analysis of Vote Share, Margin of Victory and Representativeness of Winners:

The elections in two constituencies namely Jayanagar and Rajarajeshwari Nagar have not been held.
 In the Karnataka Assembly Elections 2018, 83 political parties and independents were in the fray. These included 6 national political parties, 8 state political parties and 69 registered unrecognized parties. In comparison, during the 2013 Karnataka State Assembly elections, 59 political parties were in the fray. These included 6 national political parties, 7 state political parties and 45 registered unrecognized parties. This reflects that there has been 41% increase in the number of political parties that contested in 2018 from 2013

Source: ADR

 The voter’s turnout for the Karnataka Assembly was 74% whereas voter’s turnout in 2013 assembly elections was 71%.

Vote Share of Winners


Source: ADR

 The winners of the Karnataka State Assembly elections, 2018 won by an average of 48 % of total votes polled. In the 2013 elections winners won by an average of 44% of total votes polled.

99(45%) winners won with 50% and above of the total votes polled in their constituency

123(55%) winners won with less than 50% of the total votes polled in their constituency.

 Out of 104 winner of BJP, 53(51%) won with less than 50 % of total votes polled in their constituencies. 48(61%) out of 78 winners from INC; 19(50%) out of 38 winners from JD(S); 1(100%) winner each from KPJP and BSP have won with less than 50% of total votes polled in their constituency.

44(57%) out of 77 winners with declared criminal cases have won with a vote share of 50% and above.

95(44%) out 215 crorepati winners have won with a vote share of 50% and above.


Representativeness of Winners


Source: ADR

 All the winners of the Karnataka State Assembly Elections, 2018 won with an average of 36% of the total registered voters. This implies that the winners represent on an average, 36% of the total electorate. In the Karnataka State Assembly Elections, 2013 won by an average of 32% of the total registered votes.

 Out of 104 winners of BJP, 69(66%) have won less than 40% of votes of the total registered voters in the constituency. 61(78%) out of 78 winners from INC; 15(39%) out of 38 winners from JD(S); 1(100%) winner each from KPJP and BSP have won less than 40 % of votes of the total registered voters in the constituency.

Margin of Victory

 5 winners have won with a margin of victory of less than 1000 votes.

 8 winners have won with more than 30% of margin of victory.

 Winners with Declared Criminal Cases and their Margin of Victory:

  1. 49 out of 77 winners with declared criminal cases have won against runners-up with a clean background.
  2. Among these 49 winners, 12 winners have won with more than 20 % margin of victory.
  3. Among these, Dr. Ashwat H Narayan CN (BJP) from Malleshwaram constituency won with 44% margin of victory.

 Crorepati Winners and their Margin of Victory:

  1. 18 out of 215 crorepati winners have won against a non-crorepati runner up.
  2. Among these 18 winners, 7 winners have won with more than 20 % margin of victory.
  3. Among these, Mr. Yathindra S (INC) from Varuna constituency won with 33% margin of victory.

Performance of Women Winners


Source: ADR

 Among the 222 winners, 7 are women.

 Among the women winners, Ms. Laxmi R Hebbalkar(INC) from Belgaum Rural Constituency has won with the highest vote share, i.e. 55% in her constituency. She has won with 28% representativeness and % of margin of victory.

Performance of Re-elected Winners

 Out of total 94 re-elected winners, none have won with less than 32 % of vote share in their respective constituency. 45(48%) have won with more than 50% of vote share.
21(22%) re-elected winners have won with less than 5% of margin of victory whereas 7 have won with more than 30% of margin of victory.

NOTA

 The NOTA button instated by the ECI in 2013 gave the voters an options of rejecting all the candidates in their constituency. The total number of votes polled for None-of-the-above option were 322841 votes during the Karnataka State Assembly Elections, 2018.


Source: ADR

 Out of total votes polled for NOTA, 22% (70,941 votes) of votes were polled in 55 Red Alert Constituencies. Red Alert Constituencies refer to constituencies where among the contesting candidates, 3 or more candidates have declared criminal cases against themselves.

 

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